Maybe I’m behind the curve here, but it strikes me that we need to start seriously planning for the death of the PC.
Those of us who remember the Larry Ellison/Scott McNealy “network computer” chatter of the ’90’s will wince a bit, but this time it’s for real.
- The network is now ubiquitous enough and reliable enough for an almost-always-connected model to work. Not perfect, but good enough.
- New clients (tablets, to be sure, but netbooks and smartphones as well) are gorgeous and compelling, more usable in some ways than desktop PCs and creeping up on laptops.
- We are beginning to understand how to connect cloud backends with multi-client front ends. These will get better and better.
All of this is a recipe for multiplicity of clients, and a accelerated drop in share for PC clients.
HP’s move to spin off its PC business, and Dell’s flailing about with new acqusitions and acquisition models are evidence that the top two PC makers are planning for the deatfh of the PC. Microsoft’s bluster about the robustness of its Windows and Office franchises is typical disruptee talk.
More later on how to invest.